Former President Donald Trump‘s escalating legal drama could be former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley‘s justification to fend off pressure to drop her White House bid.
Haley claims her campaign will last through the Feb. 24 South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday on March 5 while directly pointing to Trump’s coming legal trials as a key vulnerability the GOP will face against President Joe Biden in November if Trump is the nominee.
While Haley’s pathway to the presidency faces long odds, polls suggest the Republican Party is open to an alternative if Trump is convicted as he faces 91 indictments across four criminal cases. If Haley has enough funding to keep up her White House run, public sentiment could shift more in her favor.
“The Republican Party is facing the possibility that former President Trump could be convicted before Election Day,” said David Darmofal, a professor of political science at the University of South Carolina. “If he is and is sentenced to prison, the Republican Party could face a situation that no major party has faced and that a prominent party hasn’t faced since the Socialist Party’s Eugene Debs ran for president from prison in 1920 while serving a 10-year sentence for violating the Sedition Act of 1918. From this perspective, it might be helpful for the Republican Party to have an alternative candidate in Haley.”
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Although Trump’s popularity with the GOP base is unquestioned, warning signs from the Granite State’s primary show the former president is lacking among independents, whom Haley won 58% to Trump’s 39%. She also won Democrats 86% to Trump’s 5%, bolstering her argument that she could likely defeat Biden in November.
These are the key voters in swing states that will determine whether Trump gets another chance in the White House or not and whom Haley is counting on to save her campaign against the former president.
While Trump has had two back-to-back convincing wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley argues it’s Trump who is vulnerable.
“We need to be stronger than what we did in New Hampshire,” Haley told NBC’s Kristen Welker on Meet the Press when asked if she needed to win her home state, South Carolina. “But it’s not just that we need to be stronger, Kristen. Trump needs to be stronger. He’s not getting the independent vote. He’s not getting a segment of the Republicans, so he’s got some work to do as well.”
A New York Times-Siena College poll from last month found that 24% of Republican voters who would vote for Trump said that “even if he has won the most votes in the primary,” if he is convicted, Trump should not become the GOP’s standard-bearer.
Of the two cases related to Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, 72% of his supporters said he should not be sentenced to prison if convicted. Yet 20% of his supporters also said he should be sentenced if convicted, a sign that he would lose support in a general election matchup if he loses in court.
Another Wall Street Journal poll from last month showed a Trump conviction led Biden to lead Trump by 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%, in a head-to-head matchup. Without a conviction, Trump beats Biden 47% to 43%, another sign that any conviction would cost Trump reelection.
Haley has seized upon that same Wall Street Journal poll, which showed she would beat Biden by 17 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, as a key argument for her campaign. “That makes it bigger than the presidency. That’s governorships. That’s House. That’s Senate,” Haley is fond of saying on the campaign trail.
As Trump tries to pressure Haley to exit the race, he will spend much of the primary season this cycle in court.
Prosecutors have set Aug. 5 as the date for Trump to appear in court for the Georgia case over the alleged election interference in the 2020 election, while federal prosecutors have set March 4, the day before Super Tuesday, as the beginning court day for Trump’s federal trial over election interference. However, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has signaled this court date could be moved back.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s case against Trump over a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 cycle is expected to start on March 25 in New York. Trump will also be in court starting May 20 in Fort Pierce, Florida, over allegations he took classified documents after leaving the White House.
The former president is also dealing with the fallout after a jury ordered Trump to pay E. Jean Carroll, a writer who accused Trump of sexual assault, $83.3 million on Friday while he awaits a New York civil fraud case verdict that could result in a hefty judgment for Trump to pay. Attorney General Letitia James has asked for a $370 million penalty against Trump.
All of which may point to Haley’s refusal to exit the race.
“Haley shows that there’s a lot of Republicans and independents, but Republican voting independents, who after one Trump presidency do not want another one,” said David Greenberg, a professor of history and journalism at Rutgers University and author of Republic of Spin: An Inside History of the American Presidency. “So I think from her point of view, she feels there’s really a fight on for the future direction of the party, whether it’s MAGA or not MAGA, and she’s the one to lead that fight. I don’t see why she shouldn’t continue to wait for that fight.”
Haley faces an arduous path to the nomination. He leads her in South Carolina, polling 62.5% to 29.2%, and has the backing of the majority of statewide elected officials in her home state.
Republicans statewide are pressing Haley to drop out in order to help Trump focus on a general election fight against Biden.
“Ambassador Haley is trailing President Trump in South Carolina. I believe that President Trump is the presumptive nominee, and we’ve seen him excel in the last two states,” said Wayne King, president of Old North Strategies and a former chief of staff to former North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows. “It’s time for Republicans to start talking about the disastrous economy under President Biden’s watch. The out-of-control economy is hurting Americans at the gas pump and grocery stores, which matters to everyday Americans.”
Aaron Evans, president of the Winning Republican Strategies, pointed to Trump’s advantageous polling lead as to why Haley will likely not become the GOP standard-bearer in an interview with the Washington Examiner. Each indictment last year led to an increase in Trump’s support with the GOP base.
“The problem that Nikki has is the Republican primary electorate has not wavered from their support for President Trump,” Evans said. “He still remains extremely strong in polling. … When you look at the numbers, there’s really no data path or Nikki Haley.”
Haley’s campaign pushed back against the “coronation” of Trump in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
“We don’t do coronations in America. We do elections,” Haley spokeswoman AnnMarie Graham-Barnes said. “Only two states have voted so far, and voters want to have a choice and a say. Nikki offers a stark contrast between her strong, drama-free conservative leadership and Donald Trump’s chaos, confusion, and distractions.”
The former two-term South Carolina governor is now targeting Trump in a far more aggressive manner in the wake of the New Hampshire primary. After the jury awarded Carroll with $83.3 million in damages, Haley weighed in on social media.
“Donald Trump wants to be the presumptive Republican nominee and we’re talking about $83 million in damages,” Haley posted on X. “We’re not talking about fixing the border. We’re not talking about tackling inflation. America can do better than Donald Trump and Joe Biden.”
On Monday, she mentioned courtroom drama as a reason to move past Trump.
“We have got a whole ‘nother year of this. So, what we watched was Donald Trump throw a temper tantrum the night of the New Hampshire primary because 43 percent of Republicans didn’t vote for him,” she continued. “Then I see him throw a temper tantrum in this courtroom. The reality is, are we going to have a country in disarray and a world on fire and deal with more temper tantrums?”
Two days after the Granite State primary, her campaign announced raising $2.6 million, of which $1.2 million was netted from small-dollar and digital donations in protest of Trump threatening he would “permanently bar” anyone who donated to Haley.
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That defiance could point to why Haley said she would last through Super Tuesday.
“We’re going to keep on going and see where this gets us,” Haley said Sunday. “That’s what we know we’re going to do right now. I take it one state at a time. I don’t think too far ahead, but I’m not going anywhere.”
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Nikki Haley banking on Trump legal dramas as key to lasting in primary race - Washington Examiner
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